What football, trading cards, and FanDuel got me thinking about investing versus gambling.

What a football game Thursday night!

Sure, I was disappointed the Patriots lost to the Bears, but watching Drake Maye and Caleb Williams go back and forth was pretty incredible. Maye threw for 321 yards, Williams threw for 308, and both looked like quarterbacks we could be watching for a long, long time.

Remember, these guys were drafted first and third overall just two years ago.

I found myself thinking about how awesome it would be to see them meet again in a Super Bowl sometime in the next decade. Maybe more than once. Wouldn’t that be something?

And, naturally, my mind wandered to the stock market. Because apparently, after more than 25 years as a financial planner, I can’t even watch football without thinking about investing.

What if I could buy stock in Drake Maye?

Would You Have Bought the Drake Maye Dip?

Think about it.

Four weeks ago, following that ugly loss to Jacksonville, Maye stock might have been trading at a pretty significant discount.

Remember how excited everybody was about him last season? Coming into this year, expectations were sky-high. Then the Patriots stumbled out of the gate, Maye struggled, and suddenly the enthusiasm wasn’t quite what it had been.

In the stock market, we’d call that a correction.

Fast-forward a few weeks. The Patriots rattled off three straight wins against Buffalo, Las Vegas, and the Jets. Maye started looking like the quarterback everybody was so excited about. Then came that terrific performance against the Bears.

Boy, wouldn’t it have been nice to buy some shares four weeks ago?

But here’s the question.

If I owned Drake Maye stock today, would I be taking some profits after this recent run? Or would I hold on for the next decade, hoping he becomes the next Tom Brady?

I think you know which way I’m leaning.

I’m already dreaming about that Super Bowl matchup with Caleb Williams.

Of course, there’s no guarantee either of them gets there. Injuries happen. Teams change. Careers take unexpected turns. The NFL is full of can’t-miss prospects who missed.

But that’s part of what makes watching young players develop so much fun.

And it got me thinking about something else.

What If You Could Actually Invest in Athletes?

Well, in a way, you can.

Sports trading cards.

Think about someone who bought a Tom Brady rookie card back in 2000. Here’s a sixth-round pick who wasn’t even expected to become the Patriots’ starting quarterback, never mind the greatest quarterback of all time.

Now imagine you bought one of his desirable rookie cards and held it for the next 25 years.

Not a bad investment, depending on what you paid and which card you bought!

Today, Brady is like an established blue-chip collectible. Everyone knows what he accomplished. The secret is out, and the most desirable cards come with premium prices.

But what about Drake Maye? Or the next rookie coming out of college?

That’s where it gets interesting. It’s like trying to identify an up-and-coming growth stock before everyone else recognizes its potential.

My kids have gotten into collecting cards a little, and I’ve considered doing more of it myself. But I quickly discovered that sports card trading is a whole lot more complicated than simply identifying a player you like.

There are different manufacturers, editions, grades, autographs, and all kinds of factors that influence value. I’ve even written before about my adventures trying to figure it all out.

And unlike owning a stock, owning a card doesn’t make you a shareholder in a business that can generate earnings. It’s a collectible whose price depends on what someone else wants to pay for it.

Still, I find the concept fascinating.

Wouldn’t it be fun to build a portfolio of young athletes you believe in and follow them throughout their careers?

Owning the Card or Betting on the Game?

Which brings me to another thought I had while watching Thursday night’s game.

There are really two different ways you might try to make money from your football knowledge.

You could buy a Drake Maye rookie card today and hold it for ten years, hoping his career takes off.

Or you could open FanDuel and place a bet on whether he throws for 300 yards next Sunday.

Both involve uncertainty. Both involve trying to predict something about the future.

But they’re very different experiences.

With the card, you’re buying something you can continue to own. It might go up, down, or become virtually worthless, but you aren’t forced to make another prediction next Sunday.

With the wager, you’re predicting a specific outcome within a specific period. The game ends, and the bet is settled.

That reminds me a little of the difference between long-term investing and certain types of short-term options trading.

Options have legitimate uses, including hedging risk, and they’re certainly not all gambling. But some speculative options strategies involve making short-term predictions that must be right about both direction and timing.

I’m not particularly interested in doing that.

In fact, I don’t trade options, and I haven’t really gotten into FanDuel.

But I do love fantasy football.

Why I Love Dynasty Fantasy Football

For those unfamiliar with dynasty fantasy football, it’s different from a traditional league where everybody drafts a new team every year.

In a dynasty league, you keep most or all of your players from one season to the next. You’re building something for the future.

You draft rookies. You look for players who might break out in a year or two. You trade veterans, try to find undervalued talent, and occasionally convince yourself that you’ve discovered a future superstar.

Sometimes you’re right. Sometimes you’re spectacularly wrong.

Believe me, I have plenty of examples of both!

I’ve previously written about risk versus reward in fantasy football and investing, and even explored how different investment factors resemble building a fantasy roster.

But what I enjoy most about dynasty leagues is the time horizon.

I’m not simply trying to predict who will have the best game this Sunday. I’m trying to build a team that will be competitive for years.

That’s much closer to how I think about investing.

I’m More of an Investor Than a Gambler

I understand why sports betting is so popular. I can see the excitement of having something riding on the final score.

But personally, I don’t need that extra excitement.

Watching Maye and Williams throw for more than 600 combined passing yards was entertaining enough!

When it comes to my investments, I’d rather have a strategy built around long-term goals than one that depends on getting the next prediction right.

Of course, long-term investing still involves risk. Simply holding something for a decade doesn’t guarantee that it appreciates. And the stock market doesn’t work exactly like a fantasy football league or a sports card collection.

But I like having the opportunity to participate in long-term growth without needing every individual decision to turn out perfectly.

I’d rather build something that can survive a few bad picks than depend on making the perfect pick every Sunday.

I suppose that’s why I’m more of an investor than a gambler.

And as for Drake Maye and Caleb Williams?

Who knows what the next decade will bring?

Maybe Maye will become the next Brady. Maybe Williams will bring Chicago its first Super Bowl championship since 1985. Maybe neither will reach those heights.

But I’m excited to watch their careers unfold.

And I’m already looking forward to that potential Patriots–Bears Super Bowl.

Hopefully, with the Patriots winning.

One other thought from this game sent me down an entirely different rabbit hole: the similarities between the NFL Draft and a company’s IPO. I explore that in my companion article, “The NFL Draft Is Just Like an IPO.”

Scott Nelson | Thrive Wealth Strategies

Securities offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA / SIPC. Investment Advice offered through Flagship Harbor Advisors, a registered investment advisor. Thrive Wealth Strategies and Flagship Harbor Advisors are separate entities from LPL Financial.

This article is for general educational purposes, not individual investment advice. All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. References to athletes, trading cards, options, and individual securities are illustrative only.